Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 31.188871 33.496648 36.008811 38.968773 42.390651 46.259957 51.021866
2025-11-02 27.852390 30.935668 34.509422 39.035656 44.736457 51.861276 61.768507
2025-11-09 25.300601 28.615382 32.592842 37.845424 44.817157 54.119849 68.230995
2025-11-16 23.349313 26.748356 30.929260 36.623348 44.490341 55.553144 73.629843
2025-11-23 22.529904 26.166760 30.762422 37.240679 46.615730 60.663051 85.934882
2025-11-30 21.587369 25.332078 30.161917 37.155311 47.660365 64.264799 96.853725
2025-12-07 20.655551 24.435130 29.389415 36.719595 48.075368 66.867794 106.815543
2025-12-14 19.403245 23.040064 27.843431 35.023433 46.313272 65.426415 107.775344
2025-12-21 18.875896 22.580661 27.547814 35.126920 47.412394 69.228986 122.207799
2025-12-28 18.501420 22.301613 27.476410 35.544874 49.059094 74.376134 143.068397
2026-01-04 17.781614 21.512856 26.632238 34.699693 48.436136 74.891685 151.216939
2026-01-11 17.575750 21.422673 26.782536 35.416557 50.635188 81.765298 185.550621
2026-01-18 17.294909 21.296305 26.991095 36.453472 53.994913 93.376408 263.869467
2026-01-25 16.764051 20.797693 26.629495 36.549744 55.681582 102.111328 365.111747
2026-02-01 16.014187 19.937694 25.652831 35.485118 54.819938 103.661345 429.736494
2026-02-08 15.322755 19.130149 24.709113 34.394179 53.741975 104.274905 498.328940
2026-02-15 15.061149 18.936751 24.701930 34.945856 56.277163 117.370409 957.915578
2026-02-22 14.684754 18.553130 24.367788 34.869613 57.401822 126.661258 2099.855475
2026-03-01 14.272006 18.096210 23.889022 34.480196 57.729993 133.370106 7741.098875
2026-03-08 13.655802 17.311548 22.846867 32.960523 55.134214 127.044309 6565.813596
2026-03-15 13.401084 17.063990 22.663661 33.053413 56.509604 138.610635 NaN
2026-03-22 13.216848 16.914823 22.630890 33.428346 58.672801 156.071627 NaN
2026-03-29 12.830800 16.442699 22.042059 32.669784 57.754586 157.261718 NaN